Mysterious trader wins nearly $50 million in the prediction market

After a series of bold bets related to the U.S. presidential election, a mysterious trader is expected to make nearly $50 million in profit. This trader, known as the "Trump Whale," not only bets that Donald Trump will win the presidential election but also predicts that he will win the popular vote—a result that many political observers consider unlikely to happen.

The trader who goes by "Théo" has also bet that Trump will win key swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Théo placed these bets on a certain cryptocurrency prediction market through four anonymous accounts. Although he refuses to reveal his true identity, he has been in contact with a certain media outlet since mid-October.

Théo stated that his bet is essentially a challenge to the accuracy of polling data. He describes himself as a wealthy Frenchman who has worked as a trader at several banks. Starting this summer, he began using his mathematical knowledge to analyze American polls. He believes the polls have exaggerated the support for Vice President Kamala Harris, and as a result, he has bet over $30 million in support of Trump winning.

With the announcement of the election results, Théo appeared very excited. He predicted that Trump would receive 49% or 50% of the votes nationwide, defeating Harris and winning six out of the seven battleground states. As of the afternoon of the second day after the election, analysts predicted that Trump would win the popular vote, receiving nearly 72 million votes, while Harris would receive 67.1 million votes, although there were still a large number of ballots uncounted in some states.

Théo emphasized that his bets are purely for the purpose of making money, with no political motives. He has criticized American polls multiple times, believing they often lean towards the Democrats, resulting in anomalous outcomes favorable to Harris. He specifically mentioned the "shy Trump voter effect," suggesting that either Trump supporters are unwilling to express their true leanings to polling agencies, or they are unwilling to participate in polls.

To address this issue, Théo suggested using the "neighboring residents' intention survey" method, which involves asking respondents which candidate they expect their neighbors to support. He believes this method can indirectly reflect people's true voting tendencies. Théo also revealed that he commissioned a large polling agency to conduct this survey, and the results were "shocking and favorable to Trump," but he refused to disclose more details.

Théo firmly believes that if American polling organizations adopt the "neighbor effect" method in future surveys, it will be able to avoid major prediction errors again, making election results clearer.