The macro environment and capital flows diverge, the crypto market may enter a high-level consolidation phase.

Recently, the macro environment has shown a warming trend, with Trump's easing of trade rhetoric and cooling inflation boosting market sentiment. However, capital momentum has clearly weakened, with the inflow of stablecoins and ETFs continuously declining, and new buying pressure is insufficient. Although the price of Bitcoin has risen, the inflow of capital, OTC premiums, and ETF data have all cooled simultaneously, indicating that the risk of a pullback is increasing.

In this case, it is recommended that investors adopt a defensive strategy, closely monitoring the support level of Bitcoin around $100,000 and the pullback rhythm of Ethereum. For high Beta altcoin targets, consider moderately reducing positions at high levels.

Macroeconomic Environment and Market Overview

Trade frictions and CPI data have triggered short-term market fluctuations. The surge in corporate bonds has supported the stock market but has also intensified the U.S. debt crisis. The combination of high leverage among consumers and businesses, along with the Federal Reserve's policy restrictions, has begun to reveal systemic liquidity risks.

Capital Flow Analysis and Mainstream Coin Market Structure

In terms of external capital flows, this week ETF inflows amounted to 609 million USD, but the inflow volume continues to decline. Stablecoins saw an issuance of 877 million USD this week, with an average daily issuance of 112 million USD, which is at a low level. The over-the-counter sentiment indicator shows that the stablecoin premium continues to decline below water.

The technical indicators for Bitcoin show that the market is in a fluctuating upward range, with support above 100,000 USD strengthening. Ethereum is performing weaker than Bitcoin, with the ETH/BTC ratio breaking down this week, and funds continue to flow back to Bitcoin dominance. On-chain data for Ethereum shows an increase in active addresses, which may indicate that a phase of bottoming has been completed.

The Impact of ADP Employment Data on Bitcoin Prices

Statistics show that when ADP data significantly exceeds expectations, the probability of Bitcoin rising within 7 days reaches as high as 94%, with an average increase of 6.8%. This may be because strong employment is seen as a signal of economic recovery, reducing market concerns about recession. However, Bitcoin's price elasticity to a single macro indicator is relatively limited; for every 1% exceedance of expectations, Bitcoin only rises by an average of about 0.06%.

It is worth noting that part of the sharp rise in Bitcoin is due to the resonance of the macro background or events within the crypto market itself. Therefore, ADP data can be seen as an auxiliary sentiment indicator, but its individual impact is not sufficient to determine the direction of Bitcoin. The actual trend needs to be judged in conjunction with macro policy signals and events driven by the cryptocurrency sector.

On-chain Data Analysis

The total amount of stablecoins has slightly increased to 211.256 billion USD, but the issuance amount is only 877 million USD, a significant decline compared to the previous period. The average daily issuance has dropped to 125 million USD, hitting a new low in nearly four weeks, indicating a noticeable slowdown in capital inflow. This may reflect the market entering a wait-and-see phase, with short-term liquidity marginally weakening, necessitating caution against potential consolidation pressure.

Bitcoin ETF inflows have slowed for three consecutive weeks, with a net inflow of only $609 million this week, significantly reducing the marginal impact of funds. Although the price remains within an upward channel, there is a divergence from the underlying funding situation, indicating a lack of upward momentum and adjustment risks.

The ongoing decline of the OTC premium continues to move below water, diverging from prices, indicating that the inflow of off-market funds is weakening and the market's new momentum is sluggish. This trend aligns with the slowdown in the issuance rate of stablecoins and a significant decrease in ETF inflows, signaling that the market is currently in a phase of existing stock games.

On-chain data shows that the proportion of Bitcoin chips in the range of $101,800 to $104,000 has increased by 1.72%, indicating that a market consensus is forming in this area. This accumulation of chips reflects strong support characteristics in this range, but it may also become a short-term resistance zone.

The changes in the holding address structure indicate a clear capital game: large addresses are reducing their positions at high levels, medium-sized addresses are actively trading, while small addresses continue to steadily increase their holdings. Overall, the attitude of large funds is becoming cautious, while medium and small funds constitute important support for the current price range.

Market Outlook

The market is currently in a wait-and-see and game-playing stage. In the short term, without policy or macro catalysts, the market is more likely to maintain fluctuations or face further adjustment risks. Investors need to closely monitor new market drivers and adjust their strategies in a timely manner based on changes in capital flow and on-chain data.