When non-bank deposits and household deposits show a "increase and decrease," the topic of "deposit migration" arises again.

Financial data for July shows that non-bank deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.39 trillion yuan; on the other hand, net household deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.78 trillion yuan.
This is the second "deposit relocation" this year, with the last one mainly driven by the deposit rate cut in April. Industry insiders analyze that this time may be driven by the strong attraction of the equity market.
Historically, the balance of household deposits has a significant negative correlation with the market value of A-shares, which is seen as a signal for capital entering the market. "Deposit migration" indicates an increase in risk appetite for funds, and is conducive to enhancing trading activity and scale.
On August 15, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index closed up 1.65%, and the total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges reached 224 billion yuan, breaking 2 trillion for three consecutive days, with over 4,600 stocks rising. Among them, the "bull market leader" brokerage sector rose by 3.7%, with a net inflow of 8.754 billion yuan.
Incremental capital drives the bull market
Historical data shows that there is a significant negative correlation between household deposit balances and the market value of A-shares. Before the central bank released the financial data for July, the strategy team of Industrial Securities used a ratio in their research report on August 3 and presented an intuitive chart.
This ratio represents the ratio of residents' deposits to the total market value of stocks. When this ratio decreases, it indicates that the "deposit migration" phenomenon begins to appear; the image intuitively shows that the lower the ratio, the closer it is to the peak of the bull market.
According to the statistics from Industrial Securities, historically ranked